The movement in the chart above is at the center of the market's biggest problem right now: The rules of the game keep changing. For now, they're pushing the tariff rate higher.

Economists say President Donald Trump's flip-flopping on import tariffs has hampered businesses' ability to plan ahead and hire more workers.

The grouped bar chart shows the policy rate for G10 central banks on Feb. 4, 2025 and the market implied rates at the end of July 2025. Reporting by Marc Jones, graphics by Sumanta Sen; Editing by ...