Updating the multiple yield-curve signal today shows that the indicator issued a clear recession warning starting in late 2022—a warning that continues through yesterday (Oct. 3).

Note, though, that the monthly chart of the 10-year-3-month yield spread shows that there was no yield curve inversion prior to the 1990 recession, so this could be viewed as a false negative.

This chart shows the difference between the yield on the 2-year Treasury Note and the 10-year Treasury Note. The yield curve, as measured by this spread, has been negative for more than 540 ...

Sometimes referred to as a negative yield curve, the inverted curve has proven to be a reliable indicator of a recession.

The Vaunted Yield Curve Recession Predictor Doesn't Look So Prescient Now Although highly correlated with coming recessions, it's never been strict with timelines.

While the inverted yield curve may have a good track record of predicting recessions, it’s not very precise in predicting when recessions will start.

In sum, the inverted yield curve has yet to deliver a recession because the real curve has only just inverted. This is, in many ways, a repeat of the policies that led to the 1969 recession and ...

A negative spread indicates the curve is inverted because the 10-year issue has a lower yield than its three-month counterpart. Why do spreads, or the shape of the curve, matter?

However, the yield curve remains a reliable predictor, with the inversion of the yield curve signaling a high probability of a coming recession.

The precise time between a yield curve inversion and a recession is difficult to predict, and it has varied considerably. Still, for five decades, it has been a reliable indicator.

The inverted yield curve is a widely-followed economic indicator that's preceded every US recession since 1969.

The yield spread between 1-month and 3-month Treasury bills soared to the widest since January 2008. A New York Federal Reserve's model currently assigns a 68% probability of a recession hitting ...