Indonesia also has agreed to purchase billions in U.S. energy, agriculture products and airplanes, Trump said July 15 in a social media post.

June’s CPI suggests that recent discounts on these items may be coming to an end. Durable goods, which are 11% of the overall CPI math, rose at a 0.6% annual pace in June. Inflation for all goods and services was 2.7%. Now, the pop in durable goods is meek inflation, yet it’s the first increase since November 2022.

Markets aren’t acting like this is a reality, however. Benchmark 2-year U.S. Treasury note yields rose just two basis points following the inflation release, to 3.946%, and 10-year paper is holding at 4.475%. Stocks are also trading at the highest levels on record.

June’s inflation report will be looked at not so much for what the headline numbers show than what’s in the underlying data.

The economy and the markets are "under surveillance" as we cover the latest in finance, economics and investment.

Where’s all the inflation from the Trump trade wars? So far, the evidence really hasn’t shown up — but many economists say it’s coming soon, perhaps as soon as this week.