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June 2025 fiscal flows signal short-term caution and likely SPX declines in July, but liquidity unlocks and Fed rate cuts ...
We present new evidence on the impact of fiscal variables on long-term interest rates and term premia in the United States. To alleviate endogeneity problems, we follow the seminal methodology by ...
The fiscal theory of the price level can describe monetary policy. Governments can set interest rate targets and thereby affect inflation, with no change in fiscal surpluses. The same basic mechanism ...
Adjustment of fiscal balances for the output cycle is crucial for assessing fiscal sustainability. Other temporary factors may also affect fiscal balances, concealing the underlying fiscal position.
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