There’s a significantly elevated chance that a U.S. recession will begin within the next 12 months. The odds are roughly one ...

Recession calls have grown louder and more common ever since Deutsche Bank became the first big bank to predict a downturn in April of last year. But in the 14-plus months that have passed since ...

What Comes After a Recession in a Business Cycle?. The Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research maintains ongoing evaluation of the economic conditions in the United States.

This Chart Suggests A Recession Is Coming, But It's Not. Aug. 09, 2024 10:26 AM ET S&P 500 Index ... That was a mid-cycle slowdown in the economy during the expansion from the early 1990s through ...

It’s been five years since we published the first article on the “weirdest chart ever,” which shows ... The first cycle lasted from the 1990-91 recession to the expansion peak in 1999-2000.

If the labor market's rollover via the first chart above is an accurate signal that a recession tipping point has been ... 1- The Sahm rule recession indicator, which is at a cycle high of 0.37.

As our chart of the week shows, the S&P 500 has seen a larger drawdown than the 18.9% peak-to-trough drop in the index this year during each recession since 1973.

My judgment call remains that the recession will begin in the first half of 2024, or possibly late in 2023. Memories of the 2008-09 recession are unfortunate because this one will certainly be ...

As our chart of the week shows, the S&P 500 has seen a larger drawdown than the 18.9% peak-to-trough drop in the index this year during each recession since 1973.