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Strategic positioning in short-duration TIPS and a long position in USD helped boost performance earlier in the year, though under-weighting in duration has recently weighed on returns. With the Fed ...

Perhaps this is because TIPS – if you think in nominal space like most investors do – can be quirky and complex to analyze on a bond-by-bond basis. Here’s a picture of the TIPS yield curve.

Perhaps this is because TIPS – if you think in nominal space like most investors do – can be quirky and complex to analyze on a bond-by-bond basis. Here’s a picture of the TIPS yield curve. The red ...

In sum, the inverted yield curve has yet to deliver a recession because the real curve has only just inverted. This is, in many ways, a repeat of the policies that led to the 1969 recession and ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve has forecast past recessions with near-perfect accuracy, and it currently points to an economic downturn that could drag the stock market lower.

And if you subtract the regular treasury yield from the TIPS yield, you can get kind of a guess about what the market is saying inflation is going to look like over the next five years.

Always a worrying sign for the economy: the yield on 2-year US bonds briefly popped higher than the yield on 10-year bonds on Tuesday. It’s what’s called an inversion of the yield curve, and it’s ...

Today’s 2% yield on TIPS matches the long-term real return for intermediate-term government notes, which unlike TIPS offer no inflation protection. That makes for an unusually attractive deal.

The precise time between a yield curve inversion and a recession is difficult to predict, and it has varied considerably. Still, for five decades, it has been a reliable indicator.